特朗普新政府的对外贸易战略和展望聚焦RCEP贸易协定
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65436/hssj.v1i2.11Keywords:
特朗普2.0、RCEP、GTAP模式、区域经济合作、供应链Abstract
本研究凸显了特朗普2.0政府潜在的经济和贸易政策及对区域全面经济伙伴协定（RCEP）的影响，重点关注关税、技术脱钩和供应链重组。研究运用全球贸易分析平台（GTAP）、普及模型和博弈论模型，揭示了特朗普的政策可能会增强全球经济碎片化，显着研究结果表明，出口国家可能受益于供应链调整，而中美贸易紧张局势和技术脱钩将改变区域贸易格局。本研究为政策制定者提供了数据驱动的洞见和战略建议，强调了区域经济一体化与合作应对外部压力的重要性。
References
[1] Autor, D., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. (2020). The China shock: Learning from labor market adjustment to large changes in trade. Annual Review of Economics, 12(1), 123–150.
[2] Bown, C., & Zhang, F. (2019). Measuring Trump's 2018 trade war in nine charts. PIIE Briefing Papers.
[3] Campbell, H. G. (2021). The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the future of the US dollar. CounterPunch.
[4] Chatterjee, S. (2021). US–China trade war and the RCEP negotiations: An analysis. In The China-US Trade War and South Asian Economies (pp. 175–200). Routledge.
[5] Chen, J., & Chen, D. (2017). The impact of Trump’s trade protectionism on Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. Economist, (10), 96–104. https://doi.org/10.16158/j.cnki.51-1312/f.2017.10.011
[6] Drysdale, P., & Armstrong, S. (2021). RCEP: A strategic opportunity for multilateralism. China Economic Journal, 14(2), 128–143.
[7] Drezner, D. W. (2019). Economic statecraft in the age of Trump. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 7–24.
[8] Gao, H. S., & Shaffer, G. (2021). The RCEP: Great power competition and cooperation over trade. UC Irvine School of Law Research Paper (2021-09).
[9] Gong, X. (2022). Weathering the storm?: RCEP, Chinese regionalism, and great power competition. In Chinese Regionalism in Asia (pp. 44–56). Routledge.
[10] Jiang, F. (2019). Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation under the "Trump shock": Challenges and responses. Economic Forum, (11), 52–58.
[11] Jiang, L., & Zhi, H. (2017). The evolution of North-South economic integration under a new wave of anti-globalization: An analysis of U.S. withdrawal from TPP and NAFTA renegotiations. Journal of Sichuan University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), (05), 129–137.
[12] Jin, Y. (2018). Trump’s "America First" doctrine and Sino-U.S. relations. China Development Observation, (05), 59–61.
[13] Liu, J. (2018). China-Japan-South Korea free trade agreement under Trump’s trade protectionism. Pacific Journal, (12), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2018.12.001
[14] Ni, Y. (2019). Limited impact of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement on RCEP. Import and Export Manager, (09), 28–29.
[15] Pan, S., Zhang, X., & Bhuiyan, M. A. (2023). Analysis of the economic effect of RCEP under the “Indo-Pacific strategy”: The GTAP model. Kybernetes.
[16] Park, C. Y., Petri, P. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2021). The economics of conflict and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China trade war. East Asian Economic Review, 25(3), 233–272.
[17] Park, S. C. (2017). RCEP versus TPP with the Trump Administration in the USA and implications for East Asian economic cooperation. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 5(4), 135–152.
[18] Petri, P. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2020). Trade war, RCEP and CPTPP: Will East Asia decouple from the United States?
[19] Shimizu, K. (2021). The ASEAN Economic Community and the RCEP in the world economy. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 10(1), 1–23.
[20] Terada, T. (2018). RCEP negotiations and the implications for the United States. The National Bureau of Asian Research, 20.
[21] Welfens P J J. Trump’s trade policy, BREXIT, corona dynamics, EU crisis and declining multilateralism[J]. International Economics and Economic Policy, 2020, 17(3): 563-634.
[22] 余振, 秦宁. 美国 “印太战略” 的新发展及中国的应对[J]. 亚太区域经济合作发展报告 2022, 2024: 97.
[23] Petri P A, Plummer M G, Park C Y, et al. The Economics of the Net Zero Transition: Policy Scenarios and the Role of Trade and Cooperation[J]. Available at SSRN 5448397, 2025.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 唐德鑫
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
